Prospect Update

SilverSevenSens has a prospect update.

It covers Erik Condra (NCAA), Louie Caporusso (NCAA), Patrick Wiercioch (NCAA), Craig Schira (WHL), and Jim O'Brien (WHL).

Roundtable #1 - Erik Karlsson in 2009-10, Part I

A selection of Ottawa Prospector contributors participated in this inaugural roundtable. To participate in future discussions or suggest topics of debate, please visit the Ottawa Senators Forum at Hockey Broads.

The background: Senators 2008 first round draft pick Erik Karlsson has shown plenty of positive signs in the months since his selection, finding a regular role with the Frolunda Indians of the Swedish Elite League and winning top defenseman honours at the 2009 World Juniors. He has a tremendous offensive skillset and a mature understanding of the game which belies his age. Still, his lack of size and strength might remain impediments to quick ascension in the pro ranks. While the Senators have made some moves to address their puck-moving needs on the backend, Karlsson seems an ideal remedy for many of their blueline woes and there are indications the franchise might want to speed his development by bringing him into Ottawa next fall.

The debate: How should the Ottawa Senators handle Erik Karlsson next season and going forward? Allow him become a confident star player in the SEL, gaining valuable experience? Convince him to come to Binghamton to focus mostly on training and conditioning elements? Bring him into Ottawa as a PP specialist, with access to world-class training regimen and mentors? Something else altogether? Consider these questions and more and share your thoughts in a roundtable format.

This part of the roundtable addresses the most popular conclusion, that Karlsson is not yet ready for the NHL and should remain in the SEL for at least one more season. Different conclusions will be broached in ensuing posts.

Joe Sakic:
In my mind the best path for development for Erik is to stay another season in the SEL (assuming he doesn't come in and flat out wow every one next year - like M.E. Vlasic did in SJ).

I see patience as the one common denominator that all strong drafting NHL clubs have, especially those with contributing youngsters. For Erik Karlsson, I think this should be the team’s approach. There's no doubting that from a skills perspective he's got enough to at least be a number 2 in the NHL. For Erik, he really needs to develop that physical strength that any dman needs to be able withstand the rigours of an 82+ game schedule as well as the mental strength that goes along with being a top two guy on any NHL club. Because Murray has done a fairly decent job of building some organizational depth on the backend (adding Kuba, Picard, and Campoli) I think the Sens can afford to be patient with Erik and let him develop that physical and mental strength so that when he dawns a Sens uniform he's really ready to be an impact player.

Giving Erik another year in Frolunda, where he becomes a go to guy on the back end playing key minutes in key situations would absolutely be, in my mind, the right thing to do. This will allow him to get experience being a number one/two type dman on a team where winning is expected, in a city where hockey is king. Couple the added responsibilities on the ice, with a physical regimen that can be tracked and monitored by the big club, Erik can continue to mature physically in a far less physically demanding league (the SEL vs. AHL). By affording him that added year of development, Erik could then come to NA when he's 20 and be in a better position to succeed both physically and mentally because of the added experience - assuming he continues his development path, he'd be that much more confident in himself and his game and be able to translate that confidence into results. I'd then let him ply his trade in Bingo for a year (again assuming the club feels he's not there yet), where he'd be introduced to NA style hockey on a smaller ice surface. In Bingo, I'd have him on the ice on the PP, SH and in all key ES situations so that he can continue to learn and grow and adapt his game to fit the NA style. This would also give him another year to physically get stronger preparing him for the NHL. If it's obvious that he's too advanced for the A I'd bring him up BUT not before at the very least the All Star break.

Erik's a great talent and I think if the organization can be patient with him and not rush him, he'll definitely be a difference maker for this team for years to come.

sensdiehard:
I hope we don’t rush him. He stills looks young. As Jacques Martin might say, a boy still, not quite ready for a man’s league. When he is clearly ready to take a lead role on this team, he should come over.

As Holland was quoted to suggest recently, and as the old Montreal dynasty teams used to always live by, prospects develop as long as they need in the minors and don’t come up until they are ready. That has been the hallmark of excellent organizations in the past. Hopefully we have the luxury of doing it properly too.

zamboner:
In ideal conditions, Karlsson would get another year with Frolunda, but with twice as much ice-time. He started the year strongly, wowing us with his game against the Senators in the pre-season. Following that, he was hot and cold with Frolunda, and was prone to bad defensive play. A huge WJC helped put any fears to rest, but Karlsson remains low on the club team's depth list.

Karlsson has the skill, but lacks the strength and size to step onto an NHL rink. He'd probably be a Brendan Bell right now. Think about it, Bell would have been the MVP of the WJC had he been there. I don't know why people think Karlsson would step in and immediately be a real player in the NHL.

However, the situation the Senators find themselves in is NOT ideal. They're in desperate need of a play-maker on the back-end, as the defensive corps is skilled, but lacks any kind of offensive creativity. Karlsson has a mind unlike any other defensemen within the Senators organization, and Murray will likely find that mere fact very appealing. He's got to find a way to improve the blue-line without trading away any more forward depth.

So, he should play another year in the SEL (or AHL, but I doubt it), but will likely be given a big chance to make the team next year.

Pothier:
The best thing for Karlsson's develop at this point, is to let him have one more year with Frolunda. Let him dominate the SEL, while getting bigger and stronger, taking on a larger role on the team, and maybe even working on becoming a better all around defenseman.

Keeping him with Frolunda pretty much guarantees that Karlsson will be playing, and most likely being the captain for the 2010 Sweden WJC team that will take to the ice in December. He had an outstanding tournament this year, so it's scary to think that he could do it all over again, with the chance of being even more dominant this time around, and maybe even win the Gold with Team Sweden.

The Ottawa Senators already have 8 defensemen under contract for next season; this really does not leave any room for Karlsson, especially since 2005 draft selection Brian Lee, another offensive defenseman, is still waiting for a real shot, so one would assume next year is Lee's shot. I don't feel Erik would benefit from being a 7th defenseman/PP specialist as much as he would from another year overseas.

In conclusion, I really feel Erik would truly benefit from another year in the SEL with the Indians, and another World Junior Championship. One would assume that with only 2 defensemen under contract for the 2010/11 season, this will be Karlsson's time to shine in a Senators uniform.

mayoradamwest:
Karlsson looks like he's going to be something special. It'd be nice if we could get him over for the preseason, camp and such but I'd be really hesitant to play him next year. There's no reason to rush the development of what could be the best prospect the organization has produced in years. Unfortunately, we need to have some patience with him. We could just get Mattias Karlsson to change his name to Eric to energize and confuse the fan base. Unless E. Karlsson adds serious muscle in the offseason I can't see how he'd be a better option than what we have already. Even if he is better overall (or is going to be) than most of our D corps, he doesn't need to be thrown into a team with a ton of question marks, especially considering the fan expectations that would be heaped on him by the intellectually stimulating Ottawa sports media. Give him another year, let him play out his time in Sweden, and then bring him over when he's ready to contribute immediately.If Karlsson comes over he could be a PP specialist over here but he wouldn't be able to play a full game and may find it more difficult to round out aspects of his game. If Karlsson stays and commits to his Swedish team, Frolunda, he will get the highest amount of minutes he needs to ply his trade and learn the game. Of course Ottawa's lack lustre back end seems to suggest that we should rush him over and get any help we can use back there.

There is also a third option of signing Karlsson to a contract over here getting him into some game time and then loaning him back to Frolunda if or when it doesn't work out. This has been met with some success in some other Swedish prospects in the game today as well, and is something that Karlsson is willing to entertain. I think when all is said and done I would let Karlsson play another year in Sweden. It will allow him to mature his game, keeps a good working relationship with a Swedish team that could be valuable in the future, and to me seems like the best option. We shouldn't allow our impatience to rush him into the game and possible harm his development.

sensens:
I'm not surprised most of the comments have been fairly consistent, as I don't think it's much of a debate - it makes absolutely no sense to jeopardize the development of the team's most important prospect in years. Even if he was rushed, it would be borderline delusional for the team to assume that his immediate impact would necessarily exceed what is already provided by Picard, Lee, and Campoli. If the team is in such a dire spot that this move is considered its best option, I think that would be the final indication that far more serious moves are immediately necessary.

discostu:
I think the decision on Karlsson is pretty simple and straightforward. He's obviously a very talented young defenceman, with a great head for the game. But, he is undersized, and, needs to get bigger before he should be here. Another year in the SEL seems like a no-brainer. He needs time to put on some size, and, to adapt to playing with that size. He could theoretically bulk up this summer, but, then, he'd be adapting to a new country and new league, while he's also adapting his game that goes with that added size.

Let him grow in the SEL for at least another year. He'll get the ice time opportunities there. Have Sens trainers track his progress, and see where he is a year from now.

Hossa:
Personally I am not satisfied in the least that Erik Karlsson is ready for the NHL next year, nor do I believe that at this point in time it's in his or the team's best interest to force the issue. The reasons for this are numerous, and some have been outlined by others.

For one, with several third pairing blueliners under contract heading in to camp, I do not feel desperate to play Karlsson next year. Brian Lee, Chris Campoli and Alexandre Picard are all young, looking to establish themselves, and have varying degrees of offensive upside. Moreover, they are important assets for the club, whether because they were a high draft pick (Lee) or the key component in a trade that saw a major asset go the other way (Picard and Campoli). It's important for the organization to gain a better perspective of what these players are capable of in the immediate future and whether or not they should be in the long-term plans of the club alongside Karlsson. The fact that all three are restricted free agents in the summer of 2010 only adds to the necessity of answering those questions next year. At that point Bryan Murray and company will be in a position to evaluate which, if any, of those blueliners are part of the solution, and the contracts will be structured as such. It's important to stagger contracts and receive contributions from young players in a proper manner.

I am also not entirely sure if I see a fit for somebody to play with Karlsson next year. Although I see the value in putting Karlsson with a veteran like Jason Smith, my biggest hesitation is that they are both right-handed shots. With some players that would not be a big deal, but Jason Smith's already porous puck-handling is only worse in the rare opportunity that he has to move the puck from his wrong side. The other option would be for Karlsson to play on his opposite side, but that is not ideal for a young blueliner, particularly one whose game is predicated on handling the puck and jumping in from the back-end. If we do decide that Jason Smith's hefty contract is worth retaining for another season, then I believe he should be utilized to complement Picard or Campoli, both left-handed shots with offensive ability but significant room for improvement defensively. In short, there are circumstantial reasons to hold off on putting Karlsson in to the line-up.

Even if the Senators' blueline was shaping up differently, I would not be convinced that Karlsson is ready for the NHL quite yet. It is well established that he will never be a big player, and his lower body is not built in a manner which leaves him much room for growth in the strength department. He will never be built like a fire hydrant, propelled by two tree trunks for legs, like several players below 6'0" such as Brian Rafalski or Martin St. Louis. What Karlsson will do is use his sense of timing, intelligence and awareness to play defensively, but he has not consistently been able to do so this year in the Swedish Elite League. He is far too important to this organization to rush his development and rob him of the necessary time to develop as a complete player. Playing in the SEL for another full season would allow him the opportunity to play against men and professionals, and grow to be a complete player at that level. Inevitably he will need some time to adjust at the NHL level, but that does not in any way mean his development needs to be so heavily dependent on playing against the best players in the world in Ottawa.

What I would do though is try hard to get Karlsson signed as soon as possible. Ideally I would bring him over for rookie camp and training camp, on the agreement that he will return to his club team in Sweden for the balance of the season. What this would allow the Senators is a modicum of control over his season though, because this plan only has merit if Karlsson's season in Sweden goes as planned. In order to develop in that league, he needs consistent ice time and a good situation, and with a contract signed, Ottawa would have a role to play should things go awry. On the chance that his season does not go as well as hoped, that would leave the Senators with options in terms of changing course.

This is what the Flames were able to do by sending Mikael Backlund to the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL in the middle of this year. After an impressive turn at the World Junior Championships, the Flames decided that they were not satisfied with his development in Sweden. Instead, they gave Backlund one game in the NHL and then reassigned him to a good Kelowna team for the balance of the season, where he has put up a point per game and played alongside other top prospects like Jamie Benn, Colin Long and Tyler Myers. Obviously it remains to be seen how well this works out for Backlund in the end, but the important thing for Calgary was that those first two seasons after a player is drafted are incomparably important for a player's development. Ensuring that Karlsson's season next year does not veer off track is essential, and should be the top priority at this point in time.

Roundtable #1 - Erik Karlsson in 2009-10, Part II

This part of the roundtable addresses the undecided - those who feel Karlsson's status next year is heavily dependent on his off-season training progress, on the Senators defensive depth next season, and multiple other factors such as whether Karlsson is even interested in leaving Sweden yet. The viewpoints are further outlined:

RTWAP:
There are some basic principles that seem to be shared by good organizations. Don't rush the prospect. Don't stall the prospect without ice time or opportunity. Don't let the prospect stay in a poor development environment.

It is difficult to know how these basic principles will be applied because any decisions the Senators make are going to be based on information and judgments that we're not privy to. But it might be helpful to identify some of those underlying factors.

Is Erik developing properly in the SEL? This is mainly a question about ice time, opportunity to play in the right situations, physical training, confidence building and fundamental approach to the game. If I had to guess, I'd say that Frolunda is doing fine in this regard.

Could Erik handle a jump directly this summer to the NHL? Are his skills sufficiently developed? Has his defensive game matured enough that he won't get buried as a PP specialist with little ES opportunity? Has his strength improved enough? Can he handle the transition to NA rink size and game style?

Does Erik want to come to the NHL next season? This one is hard to say. I think he's expressed a preference for playing a couple years in the SEL, but that was last fall. And he may just have been careful. It could be embarrassing if he publicly set a goal of making the NHL next season and then wasn't even invited over. Much better to state publicly that he'll stay in the SEL until he's ready and then wait for the team to ask him to come over. It's also a better mental approach. Just focus on the team he's on and the games in front of him, not the larger goal. I think that unless the Senators make a strong pitch to bring him over this summer, he will be happy to spend another season with Frolunda. Another factor is that he would probably prefer to avoid a full season in the AHL. If playing his 20th year in the SEL instead of the AHL, provides almost the same benefit and he spends most of his next season as an NHLer then there wouldn't be much benefit to spending a season on the buses with Binghamton.

Will the Senators have room? Pierre McGuire stated on the Team1200 on March 5th that the team is not done with their defense and will continue to make changes this summer. As it currently stands, there are 3 young defensemen with offensive skill in Campoli, Lee, and Picard, with Kuba providing veteran presence. Given that management has identified all of these players as bona fide NHLers, and the fact that the team has 3 defensive veteran D-men, it would be hard to imagine the team slotting Karlsson into the lineup as a #8, or even a #7 defenseman. But if the team is able to sign or acquire a true #1 then players like Smith and Volchenkov might leave to free up salary. Given a situation like that, Karlsson could find himself sharing #6/#7 duties with Alex Picard.

SensGuy:
Is it possible to withhold my decision until after the off-season? Because to me, the only thing holding Karlsson back from playing in the NHL is his size. If he's able to put on a decent amount of weight this summer, then I believe he could play at the NHL level. Would that be the best thing for his development? Who knows, but I think he has the skills and confidence to play in the NHL, but he doesn't have the size. I don't think he'll be getting any bigger playing in Sweden and against Swedish players, so if he puts on some muscle this summer, I have no issue bringing him over.

That leads to the question, do we even have room for him? Murray is going to have to get rid of some dead weight this summer, mainly in Smith, Schubert and possibly Picard, otherwise Karlsson won't get the playing time he needs.

Emo:
I'm a firm believer in putting players in a position to succeed, a position where their skills are maximized. Ottawa should give him every opportunity to excel next season in training camp. Play him in situations you want him to dominate years form now. Play him with high-level talent. If he blows you away, keep him and keep pushing him and teaching him all the while putting him in the best position to succeed.

I don't expect him to blow us away and earn a spot next year, but I think handling him how I suggested will be the most beneficial. This is the first elite-talent we've had in a while and I hope we maximize it. Put him in a real position to succeed and when he likely does not make the team, he should have a clear idea of what's expected of him and how to get there.

How he'll handle physical play at his current size is a legit concern. If we don't want him in the NHL next season due to size, do we really want him in the AHL which is rougher and more physical league than the NHL? I'd rather he not go through another season in Sweden where he's the sixth or seventh d-man, but if he's going to get primo minutes in that league, then I think it's probably the best place for him. I would hope that the Sens will tailor a plan for him to gain size; one that he can stick to while playing so far away from Ottawa.

DaveMatthew:
If he comes to the rookie and regular camps and proceeds to wow everyone ala Martin Havlat in 2000, I'd put him on the team.

I wouldn't do it simply because we have a current need in that role. No sense screwing up one of our most promising prospects in years when we have Picard, Smith and M. Karlsson all capable of filling the #6 role. Maybe they won't be as skilled, but E. Karlsson won't make or break this team next year anyways.

A further position, though endorsed by few, considers placing him in the AHL next season, primarily to address his poor strength:

Ricard_Persson:
Clay Aiken is better built than Brian Lee, and Lee takes a beating and gets bounced around this year. Lee is bigger and stronger and quite a few years older than Karlsson.

I would say that Karlsson in the NHL next year is a pipe dream. I can't see him being ready, and think a year in the AHL would do him wonders.

Senfanman88:
Erik Karlsson is in a very unique situation. There's many ways to go with him and they all have their pros and cons.

Letting him stay in the SEL could do a variety of things in itself. He could take over and be a mega-star, build his confidence and refine his skill set. A downside to this is that if he doesn't dominate, or his skill doesn't translate perfectly, his confidence could take a nose dive and the experiment could end before it started. Erik, to me, seems like the kind of guy who knows he is great and if he isn't as great as he feels (relative to NHLers or even SELers) it could be bad.

The AHL is the next idea. This gives him a shot at NHL speed and conditioning (82+ games) and would be great to develop the areas he is lacking in, such as strength and grit. The overall skill in the AHL is close to the SEL but Erik will be adjusting and the confidence factor will be buffered as he shouldn't be expecting to be great in a new league with a new style. An additional upside is the chance to play in the NHL if he's deserving or the big Sens have injuries. The downside is that he gets less money and is far from home, but he'll have to make that change sooner or later.

Straight to the NHL would be trial by fire. I'd be wary to send the Sens best prospect in years straight into the NHL like that, especially if he isn't big enough. This could be the ultimate waste if he gets beat down consistently while seeing minimal ice time. However, with smart coaching and smart utilization (PP and 3rd pairing) he could really shine at the biggest level and that would go very far.

Personally, for the team, the AHL would be best as it combines the best of the SEL and NHL opportunities. I can not blame Erik if he doesn't want to go there as he would get less money and be far from home. I really hope he comes over this summer and trains with guys like Fisher, Bass and/or Neil (if he is here) and bulks up like Zubov did. I hope that in doing this, he'd grow to crave Ottawa and accept the AHL due to the chance to get called up and make his mark.

That being said, a guy like Erik, with his natural talent and strong mental game will succeed regardless, if he wants it. When and how he will succeed depends on how he is handled next season but long term it shouldn't be the deciding factor of his NHL success.

Roundtable #1 - Erik Karlsson in 2009-10, Part III

A final argument regarding Erik Karlsson is mostly made by Devil's advocates. Most do not believe Karlsson should be rushed into the NHL, but here are the arguments presented in favour of such a development:

Gord Langton:
With the state of the D can we afford to not have Karlsson here next year?

Yeah, he's a little undersized but his game is NHL caliber. He's a better passer than any of our current players and unless Murray manages to hit a home run with a UFA, we're going to need somebody like Karlsson to intelligently run the powerplay.
Kuba is alright, but his routine is pretty predictable. If you ever want to try a drinking game on the Sens PP then take a shot every time Kuba does the return pass maneuver. (Please don't actually try this if you want to make it through a 60 minute game. It'd be like trying to drink to swearing in Deadwood.)

Picard seems every bit the 7th dman and though he should get better in the offseason (should being the main word there) he's not the solution on the powerplay, or the breakout and let's be honest with outselves; if he was a star we would get so sick of the Jean-Luc jokes that we'd boo him out of town fast. Actually it's Ottawa, they might like the fact they get the joke. Hmm.... I'll leave that one up to the philosophers.

Campoli looks like he's going to to be a decent player for us, but he's a future number 3 guy at best. Unless he improves a massive amount over the summer, I could still see Karlsson being the better player.

Bell.... I'm just kidding.

Other than that with Jason Smith, Phillips and A-train our D isn't exactly fear inducing. A lot of teams left out points open this season because they knew they couldn't do anything with it but shoot it into some pads, high and wide, or pass it around the perimeter. We have nobody in the system who can make teams respect our D offensively the way Karlsson should be able to.

This is the "new" NHL remember. Look around the league at the players that are cracking lineups and making a major impact. With the clutching and grabbing gone and an emphasis on skill, young players can thrive right off the bat. Sure some struggles are to be expected, but with a guy this talented how can you not put him in the lineup? It's Murray's job to ice the best roster possible and if he's going to leave the best player off the roster well then I'm afraid he's simply missing the boat.

Doughty in LA showed that a young defender can step in and in my opinon Karlsson is already better than him. Pair E-Karl up with Volchenkov or Smith so they can deliver some pain if anybody takes liberties on him.

Yeah, Karlsson is going to be a bit small still but if he works hard this offseason there is nothing stopping him from making major steps forward in his game. Watching him in the World Jr's, he certainly didn't shy away from contact and even had a bit of a nasty streak. With some muscle backing him up what's preventing him from playing in the NHL? He's got the skills, the attitude, and a name that makes you think of the Simpsons. Hopefully Murray will draft a Leonard as his partner this year.

The UFA crop is weak, we don't have anyone else to do it... Karlsson simply has to be an option if he performs well in camp. He said he wanted to play 2 more years in the SEL at the draft but I would bet dollars to doughnuts that if it came down to it.... If Karlsson had a slot on this team shown to him by Murray and a contract on the table, I'd think the bigger stage and the bigger dollars might change his mind quickly. Besides, he was probably just trying to be cautious. He seems like a competitive SOB and why wouldn't he want to play at the highest level? If he has the ability and I think he does, it would be a disservice to Sens fans everywhere to let this guy rot in Sweden. He's a cost effective, talented solution. Guys like him are the key to success as we've seen this year what not having enough talent coming up can do.

I.M. Fletcher:
One reason I think it would be positive to bring him over for next year is if we are paying Smith 2.6mil for leadership, it would seem that would only make sense if he was truly being utilized. Sure he has Picard and Lee to be building into now, but for someone like Karlsson whose game is predicated on confidence, you want to do everything in your power to make sure you have strong leadership guiding that confidence towards the team opposed to himself.

I am not going to begin to assume to know what Karlsson needs, but for someone so confident at such a young age, almost similar to Spezza, I would like to insulate him as much as possible so his decision making is guided through his first few year. Similarly to how Redden had Pitlick as his partner, and we got to see the development of Redden and it actually got alot more out of ol' Lance.

Just a thought. I know there are many reasons to want to protect him from a negative experience, but a year from now, he could be learning defense from Phillips Lee Picard and Campoli. Not thats a negative group, but outside of Phillips, I dont know if young guys can provide the amount of accountability that an older player can.

Maybe I am just trying to justify having Smith being paid so much for another year. If he is helping in proper development of Lee Picard and Karlsson, I think long term his 2 awful contract years would be more than worth it.

Counterpoint to I.M. Fletcher by sensens:
I do agree that having Smith paired with Karlsson would be the way to introduce him to the NHL, but he's still 18 at this point (19 by training camp) and with limited experience in even the SEL I still wonder to what extent that would really be a positive move. Not to mention that it would be difficult enough of a transition to make without simultaneously putting the weight on him to be the team's best offensive defenceman, as some have suggested would make a case for bringing him over. And if he were paired with Smith, that would mean 3rd line minutes, which isn't exactly condusive to fulfilling a role as the team's top puck mover.

And this is really my criticism - it's one thing if Karlsson had blown away the SEL, came over at camp and impressed, and was a bonus to next year's roster - but to depend on that for the success of your season is pretty poor management. And what this team would need to improve on a scenario of Phillips, Volchenkov, Kuba, Campoli, Smith, Lee, and Picard, is not a 19yo prospect who finished tied for 6th on his team in defenceman scoring. Even a relatively successful year for Karlsson as a 19yo would be considered a failure by that requirement, which is patently unfair to him as a developing prospect.

For my money, that defence is just fine - particularly because the team is poised to take advantage of inexpensive contracts for all of Campoli, Lee, and Picard - precisely the players that Karlsson would be able to compensate for in a year or two when they are no longer as easily retainable. The far more pressing concern for me is the secondary scoring up front, which is now as depleted as it's ever been. Even if Comrie re-signed at $3M/yr, the team would be pushed almost to the cap limit to just achieve that, which I would argue is a recipe for another underwhelming season. I suppose you could argue that rushing Karlsson could make one of those defencemen expendable and used as currency to find an inexpensive young forward to flank the offense, but I just think that Karlsson potentially represents a substantial part of the team's future. Playing games with his development is just not the way I would go.

Scouting Report: Brian Lee

by Evan Rawal.


From the second Brian Lee was drafted, people have questioned his selection. Taken 9th overall in 2005, with the Sens earliest draft pick in 4 years, Lee was an unknown to many in Ottawa at the time. Not only did he have the pressure of being selected before Canadian junior stars Marc Staal and Luc Bourdon, but he had to watch then GM John Muckler declare that he better be ready for the NHL in two years. Anyone that looked at Lee when he was drafted probably considered him crazy.





Lee's draft year put him on the map. While he was a high school hockey star in Minnesota, very few knew about him. That was, until Team USA surprised everyone and selected the tall and lanky Lee to their World Junior team, ahead of the highly touted Jack Johnson. Although Lee rarely saw ice time during the tournament, it put him on the map, and afterwards, went back to the Minnesota high school league and was named Mr. Hockey as the top senior high school hockey player in the state. Over the course of his draft year, he also played 12 games in the USHL, putting up just 3 assists, but adding 5 points in 4 playoff games.

Lee's post-draft development has not been ideal for a top 10 selection, but the strides are there. The most noticeable flaw from just looking at Lee when he was drafted was his lack of strength. While listed at 6'2"/6'3", Lee weighed in the 170's when he was drafted, and looked even smaller. 4 years after being selected, he now sits at 203 pounds, and while he is getting stronger, it will be a few more years before we see the finished product with Lee.

The University of North Dakota was Brian Lee's destination after being drafted. While Lee was labeled as an offensive defenseman from the moment he was drafted, his all-around game developed probably a bit faster than people expected, and remains the underrated part in his game. Even as a freshman, Lee was playing big time minutes in all situations, including 1st unit penalty kill time. While his offensive numbers his first year weren't staggering, for a freshman campaign, it was considered a great success. It was his sophomore year of college that put some doubt in the minds of many Sens fans, who were skeptical to begin with. His offensive numbers didn't progress as much as many had hoped, and his all-around game appeared to have taken a hit. Both of these years, he played for Team USA in the World Junior Championships, but while his role was bigger than the first time, he was still stuck behind the far more hyped Erik Johnson and Jack Johnson and didn't get a ton of ice time.

It was the summer after his sophomore campaign when he surprised many and signed a professional contract with Ottawa. Would John Muckler's forecast of Lee being ready in two years actually come true?

Well, it didn't, but it did come as a pleasant surprise to Sens fans that Lee was eager to accelerate his development. While he went into training camp with very slim chances of actually making the team, he did impress and show the skills, and was sent to AHL affiliate Binghamton to start the year. Perhaps benefitting Lee the most in the AHL was playing with veteran Lawrence Nycholat, and Lee flourished his first year down there, being named to the AHL All-Star team and registering 25 points in 55 games and playing in every situation.

When an ankle injury sidelined Lee for over a month in February, many figured his chance to make a jump to Ottawa very small. However, after playing only 1 AHL game after missing a month plus of hockey, Lee got the call when Wade Redden was injured. Lee didn't waste any time impressing the brass. His first game was stellar, displaying perfect one on one defensive ability, an ability to jump into the rush, and even playing a little goalie by saving a sure goal. The next day, Murray declared Lee an NHL'er, and he finished the year off in Ottawa, playing 6 regular season games and 4 playoff games while racking up 1 assist.

Lee came into this season with high expectations, but with new coach Craig Hartsburg unwilling to give him a lot of chances, or let him play with the partner he excelled with at the end of the previous year (Chris Phillips), Lee struggled, and was sent down abruptly after only 5 games. He went to Binghamton, and if you listen to their fans, didn't exactly look good. Many wondered if he would get another chance this season, but when injuries to Filip Kuba and Anton Volchenkov hit the Sens, Lee was recalled, and given a bigger role. He excelled. Playing 20+ minutes a night, often leading the team in ice time, Lee looked far more confident and was initiating instead of reacting. Because of this, he looks to have carved himself a full-time NHL gig. While he's currently in the AHL, it doesn't appear to be long-term, as it was done to clear roster space and Lee was just a casualty because of his two-way contract. Expect to see Lee called up post-trade deadline and play big minutes for the Sens, with perhaps a playoff run with Binghamton at the end of the year for experience.

Following his selection in 2005, John Muckler claimed that the Sens had Lee rated as the 5th best player in the draft. He doesn't have skills that jump out at you, but you can see why he was so highly thought of by the Sens. His hockey sense is through the roof, and is perhaps his greatest attribute. He reads the play well, he understands what to do with and without the puck, and is just an incredibly intelligent player in general. For a big guy at 6'3", Lee is a terrific skater, perhaps the best skating defenseman the Sens currently have (although he doesn't have much competition). He's a real good puck mover, and is starting to skate more with the puck, which will only help make him more dangerous. On the other hand, he still has his flaws, the most obvious being his lack of strength. He still gets outmuscled in the corners, which isn't surprising at his age, but it will continue to improve. His lack of strength also limits his offensive game, as his shot is below average, at best. He'll need to continue to fill out in order to reach his full potential.

The future looks bright for Lee. At only 21, he's already shown he can play 20+ minutes a night in the NHL, and he will only continue to get better. He looks like a sure bet to be a top 4 blueliner in this league, but the question is, what is his top end potential? I personally believe he can be a top pairing guy. Probably not a #1 defenseman, but he has all the makings of a good #2. He's got the size, he's got the skating ability, he can move the puck, he can jump into the play, and he can play in any situation. If he fills out even more, you've added yet another element to his game.

Nearly 4 years after his draft, Sens fans have good reason to be excited about the 9th pick in the 2005 draft.

Scouting Report: Jesse Winchester

by Stephen McLean.



Almost a full season into his career, Jesse Winchester has yet to hit the anniversary mark whence most Sens fans learned who he was. He did not take the typical route to the NHL, going through … the Winchester Hawks of the Eastern Ontario Junior "B" Hockey League (one can only assume the team was named after him) the Cornwall Colts of the Central Junior Hockey League and then went to well known hockey factory Colgate University. The only award or recognition Jesse Winchester received on his way to the NHL was being named to the ECAC - Third All-Star Team for 2007-2008. Winchester was more of a defensive player even in college where he played an intelligent, responsible game. Despite putting up 33 points in 32 games for Colgate in 05-06, Winchester was signed March 24th 2008 for his defence, intelligence, and puck control abilities.

The 6'1, 215 pound native of Long Sault, Ontario was an unknown to most. He came without the hype of other college players such as Chris Kunitz, Dustin Penner and Blake Wheeler or last year's signing of Swedish forward Fabian Brunnstrom. Despite this lack of apparent pedigree, when Winchester came into camp last fall the organization thought highly of him. Uncomfirmed reports have suggested that many teams were in the running for Winchester. Murray signed Winchester to an entry level contract in the spring that expired a few months later, and also arranged for him to play a single game at the NHL level. Due to Winchester's 25th birthday in early October and some peculiarities of the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement, that meant Wichester could be signed last summer to a one-way deal, and would have to go through waivers before being sent down to the AHL. Murray was confident enough of Winchester's potential to offer a one way contract and create a situation in which the Senators can't send him down without risking losing him on waivers. He started training camp on a line with Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley and while he didn't last on the top line, he has justified management's assessment and found himself a productive role for the Senators.

Winchester will never put up big numbers in the NHL, but where he will shine is along the boards. He plays an intelligent puck control game along the boards, skilled at putting the puck in his skates and angling toward the boards to roll off of a defenceman. While only a rookie, Winchester has shown flashes of potential which should see him have a long and successful NHL career. He broke into the Senators lineup without a problem, in a year with little competition in the forward ranks but has shown that he deserved the spot from the beginning. It is much easier to integrate a defensively responsible player and Winchester can be trusted to go out and not hurt the team. Solid in his own end, Winchester excels along the boards. He is very adept at laying the puck to an empty spot in the corner or behind the net to keep possession.

If he continues to improve he should be able to dominate play along the boards. He also has shown a willingness to battle much bigger and stronger opponents (some may remember him getting greeted by Chara in the corner, personally I thought he was a keeper the moment he got up from that collision. Winchester is a surprisingly physically player for his size, and his ability to deliver solid hits aids him with puck retrieval. Especially notable is his body control and anticipation when receiving a hit. More than a few players of similar size have bounced off of Winchester when attempting to hit him.

As a very smart hockey player, he is excellent at maintaining angles which is also why he is able to play physically strong game without spending a lot of time in the penalty box. For a “grinding” forward to have only 20 penalty minutes this far into the season speaks volumes about his intelligence and why he should be able to become a mainstay in Ottawa.

Winchester could use some added strength but his skating is NHL caliber and his ability to control play behind the opponents net, along the boards, and strong cycle game mean that he should be a relatively cheap contributor to the Senators for the next few years. His offensive skills need polishing (which should help keep his contract down), but it is pretty clear he will never be a potent offensive force, which may render him a permanent bottom 6 player. However, it is his ability to control the flow of the play which could potentially make him a dangerous setup man in the future. As Winchester has the ability to maintain possession for long periods of time below the opponents goal line, if teammates can get themselves to the front of the net and if the Winchester can hit them, we may see a patented J.W. Play develop over time if he improves manages to find and establish an office behind the net. If he never gets the pass from the boards completely down, he will at worst be a defensively responsible player who you can slot into almost any situation and is strong on the puck and body. Look for this intelligent man to eventually become a leader in the Senators dressing room, with consistently smart and hard working play.

Prospect Watch

Graeme at 6th Sens has posted a Prospect Watch entry.

Two prospects in the Top 50 and three in the Top 100? Bonerific! Who cares if it doesn't include prospects already playing in the NHL (obviously Elliott was called up after it went to publication). Perhaps the only concern is how low Jim O'Brien has fallen on that list? Or maybe it's indicative for how strong management drafted last year.

Looks like the Senators have climbed all the way to mediocre in terms of prospect depth. Picking near the top of the draft this year, and the returns from departing players at the trade deadline should put the Senators solidly in the top 3rd going forward. I'd rather have a top team than top prospects, but if you can't have the first then the second is a step in the right direction.